In early 2026, a major attribution study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group confirmed that human-induced climate change was the primary driver behind the catastrophic wildfires that tore through central Chile and northern Patagonia, Argentina, in early 2024 and again in early 2026.

The research highlights that while natural cycles played a role, the “fire weather” conditions—extreme heat, low humidity, and high winds—were made significantly more likely by the burning of fossil fuels.

1. Key Findings: The “Climate Fingerprint”

The study, released in February 2026, used peer-reviewed methods to quantify how much global warming “loaded the dice” for these specific events.

• Increased Likelihood: Climate change made the extreme fire-risk conditions three times more likely in central Chile and 2.5 times more likely in the Patagonian region of Argentina.
• Rainfall Deficit: Rainfall intensity during the crucial November–January “fire season” is now 20–25% lower than it would be in a world without human-caused emissions.
• The Temperature Factor: The fires were fueled by “stunning” March heatwaves with temperatures approaching 40°C (104°F), levels that scientists say are “virtually impossible” without the current $1.3\text{°C}$ of global warming.

2. The Role of Invasive Species

A significant finding of the 2026 report was the “local exposure” created by land-management choices.

• Flammable Plantations: The expansion of non-native, monoculture plantations—specifically Monterey pine and Eucalyptus—has created “highly flammable landscapes.”
• Loss of Native Resilience: These invasive species have replaced more fire-resistant native ecosystems, turning vast areas into what researchers described as “kindling” for rapid fire spread.

3. Impact on Natural Heritage

The wildfires have struck at the heart of South America’s most protected and iconic landscapes.

• Los Alerces National Park (Argentina): Fires in early 2026 threatened the ancient Alerce trees, some of which are over 3,000 years old.
• UNESCO Heritage Sites: The fires devastated parts of the northern Patagonian Andes, destroying tens of thousands of hectares of native forest and critical habitats for endangered species like the Huemul (Andean deer) and the Pudú.

4. Summary: Compound Drivers of 2026 Wildfires

5. The “Budget Crisis” in Argentina

The report also raised concerns about the human response to these growing risks. In Argentina, researchers pointed to a “crippling” reduction in fire management budgets, noting that the number of park rangers and firefighters had been significantly cut just as the fire risk reached its historical peak.

“For Chile and Argentina, the drying of our landscapes is no longer a projection but a crisis. Ignoring climate change just makes it much more dangerous.” — Prof. Friederike Otto, World Weather Attribution.